The 2012 Iowa Caucus on Jan. 3 has entered political lore as the closest presidential election in any state's history. A mere eight votes separated the winner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, from the second-place finisher, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Just eight votes separated the more pragmatic-minded moderate from the social conservative.
Considering the views of the American electorate, Republicans would be wise to choose the moderate.
The Grand Old Party is at a critical juncture in the party's 158-year history. The future of the party hinges on the choice Republican voters will make during this primary season.
Will the GOP pit against President Barack Obama a sober moderate, who prefers to focus his campaign and voters' attention on the economy and federal budget, or a social conservative, who would prefer to highlight the difference between himself and the president on issues such as abortion and gay marriage?
A social conservative nominee sends the wrong message to future voters who are far more concerned with non-social topics. After all, a voter without a job couldn't care less about when Santorum believes life begins. And a single 20-something is not likely to care about Texas Gov. Rick Perry's view on the sanctity of marriage.
Since the 1960s and the formation of the conservative coalition, the GOP has promoted candidates guided by what Santorum refers to as America's "moral compass." Republicans like Santorum have been victorious in previous election cycles because of their ability to impress upon Americans the idea that continued freedoms rely on a strong moral compass. With fewer people marrying and only 20 percent of those who do having children, Americans are slightly less inclined to worry about America's moral compass — particularly when the unemployment rate hovers around 8.5 percent.
A December CBS poll shows that "moral/family values," which includes policies addressing same-sex marriage, abortion and the legalization of marijuana to name a few, register as the most important issues among only 3 percent of voters. Rather, Iowa entrance polls showed the economy and budget to be considered "most important" by a combined 76 percent of those who voted in the Caucus.
These numbers are not likely to become better for social conservatives after this election. Two-thirds of Millennial Generation voters, also known as Generation Y, have little interest in fighting about the "divisive" issues of the past half century — this specifically includes abortion and gay rights, according to a 2009 Center for American Progress report. While the Millennial Generation does not comprise a significantly large segment of the voting population now, it will in the coming decades.
This does not mean conservatives should change their views about social issues. Nor do these numbers suggest these issues won't be important to individual Americans during the future. What it points to is the likelihood that these once central issues of conservatism now are considered less vital concerns for the prosperity of the nation. If the GOP wants to be successful for much of the 21st century, voters certainly shouldn't nominate a candidate like Santorum or Perry.
Santorum ran in Iowa on a platform that highlighted his stance as a pro-life Catholic, and Perry currently is crisscrossing South Carolina touting his moral visions for America. While the past suggests these kinds of candidates do well within the GOP, the current trend suggests a shifting image and message within the party of Ronald Reagan: you can answer questions regarding abortion honestly, but please don't include it in your stump speeches.
Following the elections of fiscally-focused Republicans like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk, I have confidence in the GOP to nominate the right candidate for its own well-being. Polling suggests voters, while still conflicted, are beginning to lean in the same direction — toward Romney. Perhaps, the impact of those mere eight votes is far more sizeable than meets the eye.
Ken Dusold is a senior political science major from St. Louis.
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